HubSpot forecast: a sales forecast that holds up

Weighted pipeline, forecast category or submission: which number to trust

The HubSpot forecast tool shows four numbers, and each answers a different question. Decide which one you report to leadership before the first review.

The weighted pipeline is a statistical number. Across fifty deals it comes close, yet it is wrong for every single deal, because a deal at 60% closes at 100% or at nothing. Commit is a judgement on single deals. A forecast needs both.

How to set up the HubSpot forecast tool

Set up the forecast in this order. Goals come last, because changing the forecast period afterwards deletes them.

1. Step 01

   Choose the forecast amount

   Go to Settings > Objects > Forecasts. Under “Forecast deal amount”, keep “Weighted amount” or choose “Total amount”. The weighted amount only helps once the stage probabilities are right (see the next section).

   

2. Step 02

   Set the forecast period

   Choose monthly or quarterly. The period applies to all pipelines, so pick the period leadership reports in. HubSpot asks you to confirm, because the change deletes all revenue goals and submissions.
3. Step 03

   Map the stages to forecast categories

   Select each pipeline and put every stage into Not forecasted, Pipeline, Best case or Commit. Turn on “Automate forecast categories” so the category follows the stage. HubSpot creates a workflow for this. To change its logic, clone the workflow first, because turning the setting off deletes it.

   

4. Step 04

   Create forecastable revenue goals

   In Sales > Forecast, click “Create goal”. Use the Forecastable Revenue template, set the duration to match the forecast period, and enter a target for each rep or team. A goal with a different duration doesn’t show in the forecast.
5. Step 05

   Set a submission schedule

   In the forecast tool, click Actions > “Set submission schedule”. Set the due day before your weekly review, the teams and a reminder. In the settings, turn on the submission status indicator, so a rep who hasn’t updated for eight days is flagged.
6. Step 06

   Give the right people access

   Reps need an assigned Sales or Service seat and Forecast permissions to show up and submit. Changing settings needs a Super Admin. If reps shouldn’t see each other’s numbers, limit their Forecast view to their own team.

How to set deal stage probabilities from your own win rates

HubSpot’s default pipeline comes with 20, 40, 60, 80 and 90%. These defaults are placeholders. Until you replace them with your own win rates, the weighted pipeline is a guess multiplied by your amounts.

1. Step 01

   Take a year of closed deals

   Use the deals in one pipeline that were won or lost in the last 12 months. With fewer than about 30 closed deals the rates swing too much. Keep the defaults until you have them, and say so in the review.
2. Step 02

   Count per stage

   For each stage, count the closed deals that reached it, and how many of those were won. A deal report filtered on the stage’s “Date entered” property gives the count. A deal that skipped the stage counts as having reached it.
3. Step 03

   Enter the rate as the stage probability

   In Settings > Objects > Deals, tab “Pipelines”, edit the stage and enter the rate as a custom probability, rounded to 5%.
4. Step 04

   Count again every six months

   Win rates move with the market and the team. Count again every six months, and whenever you change the stages.

A deal’s probability can also be changed on the deal itself, and its weighted amount follows. Leave that to managers. Otherwise the gut feeling the stage rates replaced comes back one deal at a time.

Eight deal rules for an accurate sales forecast

A sales forecast rests on three fields of each deal: stage, close date and amount. These eight rules keep the three fields true. Build each rule into HubSpot, so it doesn’t depend on a memo.

• The close date is a date the buyer agreed to. From the proposal on, ask for the buyer’s decision or signing date and enter that instead of the date the rep hopes for.
• No open deal has a close date in the past. A saved deal view “open, close date before today” shows them. The owner moves the date or closes the deal before the review.
• Every stage has exit criteria. Two or three facts that must be true before a deal leaves the stage, written as what the buyer has done: “budget confirmed”, not “follow-up sent”. Make them required with conditional stage properties, so a deal can’t move on without them.
• Every open deal has a next step with a date. A scheduled task or meeting. A deal without one is stale, however recently it was edited, because workflows and integrations edit deals too.
• Commit has a written definition. For example: the decision maker has confirmed the order, the signing date is agreed, and nothing is open with legal or purchasing. A rep who moves a deal into Commit by hand writes why in the Next step field.
• The amount comes from the quote. Once there is a quote, the deal amount follows its line items. Before that, use your average deal size rather than the largest order the buyer might place.
• Close date changes are counted. Create a number property “Close date changes” and a workflow that adds 1 each time the close date changes. A deal whose date moved twice without a stage change leaves Commit.
• Lost means lost. A deal with no activity for 60 days is closed lost with a reason. The deal can be reopened when the buyer comes back.

The weekly forecast review in 30 minutes

A forecast gets better in a short weekly review. Teams that clean up once a month, before the board meeting, find the same faults every month.

1. Step 01

   Before the meeting, reps fix their exceptions

   Each rep works through a saved deal view of their open deals with a past close date, no next step, two or more close date changes, or “Is Stalled” set. HubSpot sets Is Stalled when a deal has spent 20% longer in its stage than the owner’s won deals usually do.
2. Step 02

   Reps submit their forecast

   By the due day, each rep submits a forecast for the period in the forecast tool, or in the mobile app, and ticks the deals behind the number.

   

3. Step 03

   Start the meeting with what changed

   Open the forecast tool for the team and compare Commit, the weighted pipeline and the submissions with last week. In a rep’s deal list, the coloured dots and arrows show which deals moved stage or changed amount in the period.
4. Step 04

   Go through the Commit and Best case deals

   One question per deal: what has to happen, by when, and who on the buyer’s side does it. The answer goes into the deal’s Next step field.
5. Step 05

   The manager submits the team number

   After the meeting, the manager submits the team forecast. The team submission is the number leadership sees.

How to measure forecast accuracy in HubSpot

Measure forecast accuracy, or the review never gets better. HubSpot calculates accuracy for every rep and team that submits a forecast.

In the forecast tool, click Update next to a rep or team, then “View history”. HubSpot’s forecast accuracy is 1 minus the gap between closed won and the forecast, divided by closed won, and never below 0%. The forecast in that formula is the average of all submissions in the period. A forecast of €400,000 against €500,000 won is 80% accurate.

• Judge an early submission, not the average. The average includes the last weeks, when the result is nearly known. Take the submission on a fixed early day, for example day 15 of the quarter, and compare it with closed won. A forecast is worth most while there is still time to act on it.
• Keep the number yourself. HubSpot shows submissions for up to one year back and has no report that compares them week by week. Put the day-15 number in your board report.
• Look at accuracy per rep. If the whole team is off in the same direction, check the probabilities and the stage definitions. If one rep is off, the cause is that rep’s judgement, and the fix is a coaching conversation.

What the HubSpot forecast tool can’t do, and the workaround

These limits show up after the set-up, when the first numbers don’t match what finance expects.

Rep forecasts and the works council in Germany and Austria

A forecast per rep compares people: submissions, accuracy, stalled deals and goal attainment, each with a name on it. In Germany and Austria, settle the works council question before go-live.

• The works council has a say. In Germany, a tool that can monitor how employees work needs the works council’s agreement (section 87(1) no. 6 BetrVG). In Austria, systems that process employees’ personal data beyond the basics need a works agreement (section 96a ArbVG). The rep view in the forecast tool falls under both rules.
• Decide who sees what. Forecast view permissions can be limited to the user’s own team. Agree the views with the works council together with the purpose of the numbers, as for per-rep sales reports.

How we set up a forecast in HubSpot

We start with the deals and set up the forecast tool last.

1. Step 01

   Check the data

   A year of closed deals per pipeline: win rates per stage, close dates that moved, deals open past their date, stalled deals and missing amounts.
2. Step 02

   Agree the definitions

   Exit criteria per stage, what Commit means, and the close date rule, agreed with the head of sales and, where there is one, the works council.
3. Step 03

   Build them into HubSpot

   Stage probabilities, required properties per stage, forecast categories, goals, the exceptions view and the close date counter.
4. Step 04

   Run the first reviews together

   We sit in the first four weekly reviews, until the team runs them without us.

Frequently asked questions